Global temperatures to break records during the next five years

There is a 66 percent chance that the yearly average near-surface global temperature between 2023 and 2027 will be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.

According to a new estimate released on May 17 by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), global temperatures are likely to surge to record levels aided by heat-trapping greenhouse gases and the El Nino weather pattern. The report underlines that there is a 66 percent possibility that global temperatures would rise by 1.5 degrees Celsius or more compared to pre-industrial levels in at least one of the years between 2023 and 2027.

Additionally, there was a 98 per cent chance that one of these years will exceed 2016 as the hottest year ever recorded. The average annual temperature was 1.28 degrees Celsius warmer in 2016 than it was in pre-industrial times, making it the hottest year on record. In 2022 1.15 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial normal was recorded.

“Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to,” said Dr Leon Hermanson, a Met Office expert scientist who led the research.

Separately, new research published claimed that climate change was most likely to blame for the intense heat wave that hit India and parts of its neighbours in April. According to a study published by a team of scientists involved in the World Weather Attribution programme, the likelihood of the April heat wave in India, Bangladesh, Laos, and Thailand increased by at least 30 times due to climate change.

These kinds of occurrences were only predicted to occur once every hundred years, but they were now predicted to happen once every five years under climate change scenarios, scientists asserted.

According to the WMO estimate, the five-year period between 2023 and 2027 will probably certainly be warmer than the preceding five-year period between 2018 and 2022. El Nino, which is now emerging in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is also anticipated to have an impact on this. The current typically has an effect on raising global temperatures in the year after its occurrence. That implies that 2024 could experience an increase in global temperature as a result of the same.

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